| Figure | AJ Auxerre | Toulouse | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 1 | 0 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 18 | 19 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.27 | 0.00 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 28.0% | 32.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 26.0% | 28.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 28.1% | 27.8% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.121 | 0.087 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,343 | 1,643 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 1 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.27 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.208 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille OSC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyonnais | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 | AS Monaco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 | OGC Nice | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | RC Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Olympique de Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 12 |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 |
| 12 | RC Strasbourg | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | AJ Auxerre | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | Stade Brestois | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 | ES Troyes AC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre AC | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 2 |