| Figure | Al Shabab | Neom SC | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 2 | 4 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 5 | 4 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.44 | 0.53 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 18.0% | 13.3% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 24.5% | 13.3% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 24.5% | 13.3% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.264 | 0.428 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 524 | 185 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 6 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 0.97 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.691 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Qadsiah | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 10 | +17 | 22 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 21 |
| 3 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 4 | Al Nassr | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Neom SC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 16 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Al Ettifaq | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Al Shabab | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Al-Faisaly | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Al Fayha | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Hazem | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Fateh | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 4 |
| 16 | Al Kholood | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Al Taawoun | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Abha | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2 |