Ajax vs De Graafschap

Match ☆ 22 Nov 1997

NED · Eredivisie · 1997

NED Ajax

Current form · last 20

D L W D W W W W D W L W W D D L W W W W

Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

Current league standing unavailable

As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 0–0

View head-to-head record →

The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Ajax	De Graafschap	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	2	0	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	24	15	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.45	0.00	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	20.0%	22.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	24.0%	26.2%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	18.1%	26.2%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	2		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.45		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 22 Nov 1997, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Ajax 1,835 after: 1,836

De Graafschap 1,499 after: 1,497

Rating gap +401 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 13.9% 300+ · 22,595 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 2.55 – 0.69 home – away

Home win 77.3%

Draw 15.2% every level score added up

Away win 7.5%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 14.9% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 15.2% form only

This Elo gap said 13.9% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 11.2% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 10.8% – 11.2% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 14.9% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Eredivisie · 19971998 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Ajax Champion	34	29	2	3	112	22	+90	89
2	PSV Eindhoven	34	21	9	4	95	44	+51	72
3	Vitesse Arnhem	34	21	7	6	85	48	+37	70
4	Feyenoord	34	18	7	9	62	40	+22	61
5	Willem II Tilburg	34	17	4	13	66	58	+8	55
6	SC Heerenveen	34	16	7	11	56	59	-3	55
7	Fortuna Sittard	34	14	6	14	51	53	-2	48
8	NEC Nijmegen	34	14	2	18	40	57	-17	44
9	Twente	34	11	10	13	41	42	-1	43
10	Utrecht	34	13	4	17	56	64	-8	43
11	De Graafschap	34	11	9	14	45	49	-4	42
12	NAC Breda	34	12	6	16	41	49	-8	42
13	Sparta Rotterdam	34	10	11	13	50	59	-9	41
14	Roda JC Kerkrade	34	10	8	16	44	45	-1	38
15	MVV Maastricht	34	9	5	20	35	75	-40	32
16	RKC Waalwijk	34	8	7	19	48	71	-23	31
17	Groningen	34	7	10	17	42	65	-23	31
18	Volendam	34	5	6	23	33	102	-69	21

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