Roda JC Kerkrade vs Ajax

Match ☆ 27 Apr 1994

NED · Eredivisie · 1993

NED Roda JC Kerkrade

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D W L W W D W L W L W L D L L W D L L W

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Current league place

#2 / 18 · NED · Eredivisie · 2026/27

As of this morning · domestic league only

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Roda JC Kerkrade	Ajax	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	0	8	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	7	18	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.00	1.12	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	20.9%	14.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	20.9%	14.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	20.9%	15.1%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	8		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	1.12		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 27 Apr 1994, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Roda JC Kerkrade 1,561 after: 1,555

Ajax 1,745 after: 1,752

Rating gap -119 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.3% 100–149 · 87,157 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.42 home – away

Home win 30.5%

Draw 27.4% every level score added up

Away win 42.1%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 26.9% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 27.4% form only

This Elo gap said 25.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 26.0% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 25.8% – 26.8% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 26.9% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Eredivisie · 19931994 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Ajax Champion	34	26	2	6	86	26	+60	54
2	Feyenoord	34	19	13	2	61	27	+34	51
3	PSV Eindhoven	34	17	10	7	60	36	+24	44
4	Vitesse Arnhem	34	17	6	11	63	37	+26	40
5	Twente	34	15	9	10	57	43	+14	39
6	Roda JC Kerkrade	34	15	8	11	55	40	+15	38
7	NAC Breda	34	14	10	10	61	52	+9	38
8	Willem II Tilburg	34	15	7	12	48	42	+6	37
9	Sparta Rotterdam	34	12	8	14	58	57	+1	32
10	MVV Maastricht	34	11	10	13	49	58	-9	32
11	Volendam	34	13	4	17	46	55	-9	30
12	Go Ahead Eagles	34	10	8	16	44	57	-13	28
13	SC Heerenveen	34	9	10	15	35	61	-26	28
14	Groningen	34	9	8	17	42	65	-23	26
15	Utrecht	34	9	8	17	40	63	-23	26
16	RKC Waalwijk	34	8	9	17	38	56	-18	25
17	VVV-Venlo	34	7	11	16	30	62	-32	25
18	SC Cambuur	34	6	7	21	28	64	-36	19

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