RKC Waalwijk vs Go Ahead Eagles

Match ☆ 15 Feb 1995

NED · Eredivisie · 1994

NED RKC Waalwijk

Current form · last 20

W W W L L L L D D L L L W L W W W L W D

Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

#10 / 18 · NED · Eredivisie · 2026/27

As of this morning · domestic league only

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	RKC Waalwijk	Go Ahead Eagles	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	4	1	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	5	7	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	1.04	0.27	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	26.0%	28.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	25.9%	25.9%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	25.9%	25.9%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	5		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	1.31		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 15 Feb 1995, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

RKC Waalwijk 1,453 after: 1,459

Go Ahead Eagles 1,357 after: 1,351

Rating gap +161 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 23.7% 150–199 · 53,412 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.94 home – away

Home win 65.7%

Draw 19.9% every level score added up

Away win 14.3%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 20.8% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 19.9% form only

This Elo gap said 23.7% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 20.8% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 20.8% – 20.8% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 20.8% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Eredivisie · 19941995 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Ajax Champion	34	27	7	0	106	28	+78	61
2	Roda JC Kerkrade	34	22	10	2	70	28	+42	54
3	PSV Eindhoven	34	20	7	7	85	46	+39	47
4	Feyenoord	34	19	5	10	66	56	+10	43
5	Twente	34	17	8	9	66	50	+16	42
6	Vitesse Arnhem	34	14	12	8	55	44	+11	40
7	Willem II Tilburg	34	13	8	13	44	48	-4	34
8	RKC Waalwijk	34	11	11	12	46	49	-3	33
9	SC Heerenveen	34	12	6	16	47	60	-13	30
10	NAC Breda	34	11	7	16	54	60	-6	29
11	Volendam	34	8	13	13	37	55	-18	29
12	Utrecht	34	8	11	15	43	60	-17	27
13	Groningen	34	8	10	16	49	64	-15	26
14	Sparta Rotterdam	34	8	10	16	42	58	-16	26
15	NEC Nijmegen	34	9	7	18	48	60	-12	25
16	MVV Maastricht	34	7	9	18	41	71	-30	23
17	Go Ahead Eagles	34	7	9	18	42	77	-35	23
18	Dordrecht	34	5	10	19	40	67	-27	20

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