1. FC Köln vs TSV 1860 München

Match ☆ 21 Aug 1996

GER · Bundesliga · 1996

GER 1. FC Köln

Current form · last 20

W D L D L L D W W W L D L D D W L D W D

Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

Current league standing unavailable

As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 1–0

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	1. FC Köln	TSV 1860 München	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	8	2	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	10	9	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	2.54	0.62	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	36.0%	32.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	29.0%	30.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	22.1%	27.7%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	10		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	3.16		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 21 Aug 1996, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

1. FC Köln 1,633 after: 1,642

TSV 1860 München 1,643 after: 1,635

Rating gap +55 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.0% 50–74 · 79,350 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.01 home – away

Home win 44.9%

Draw 28.4% every level score added up

Away win 26.7%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 27.5% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 28.4% form only

This Elo gap said 25.0% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 28.1% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 28.1% – 28.1% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 27.5% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Bundesliga · 19961997 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Bayern München Champion	34	20	11	3	68	34	+34	71
2	Bayer Leverkusen	34	21	6	7	69	41	+28	69
3	Borussia Dortmund	34	19	6	9	63	41	+22	63
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	7	9	78	40	+38	61
5	VfL Bochum	34	14	11	9	54	51	+3	53
6	Karlsruher SC	34	13	10	11	55	44	+11	49
7	TSV 1860 München	34	13	10	11	56	56	0	49
8	Werder Bremen	34	14	6	14	53	52	+1	48
9	MSV Duisburg	34	12	9	13	44	49	-5	45
10	1. FC Köln	34	13	5	16	62	62	0	44
11	M'gladbach	34	12	7	15	46	48	-2	43
12	Schalke 04	34	11	10	13	35	40	-5	43
13	Hamburger SV	34	10	11	13	46	60	-14	41
14	Arminia Bielefeld	34	11	7	16	46	54	-8	40
15	Hansa Rostock	34	11	7	16	35	46	-11	40
16	Fortuna Düsseldorf	34	9	6	19	26	57	-31	33
17	SC Freiburg	34	8	5	21	43	67	-24	29
18	FC St. Pauli	34	7	6	21	32	69	-37	27

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