Hannover 96 vs FC 08 Homburg

Match ☆ 06 Nov 1993

GER · 2. Bundesliga · 1993

GER Hannover 96

Current form · last 20

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Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

Current league standing unavailable

As of this morning · domestic league only

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Hannover 96	FC 08 Homburg	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	0	3	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	6	10	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.00	0.21	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	27.0%	7.1%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	27.0%	7.1%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	27.0%	7.1%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	3		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.21		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 6 Nov 1993, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Hannover 96 1,507 after: 1,490

FC 08 Homburg 1,519 after: 1,536

Rating gap +53 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 25.0% 50–74 · 79,338 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.38 – 0.88 home – away

Home win 48.1%

Draw 28.8% every level score added up

Away win 23.2%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 27.6% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 28.8% form only

This Elo gap said 25.0% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 29.3% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 29.3% – 29.4% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 27.6% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · 2. Bundesliga · 19931994 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	VfL Bochum Champion	38	19	10	9	56	34	+22	48
2	KFC Uerdingen 05	38	18	11	9	49	30	+19	47
3	TSV 1860 München	38	19	9	10	55	38	+17	47
4	FC St. Pauli	38	17	11	10	47	39	+8	45
5	VfL Wolfsburg	38	15	10	13	47	45	+2	40
6	Waldhof Mannheim	38	12	16	10	45	45	0	40
7	SV Meppen	38	14	11	13	48	52	-4	39
8	Hansa Rostock	38	15	9	14	51	56	-5	39
9	Chemnitzer	38	14	11	13	34	44	-10	39
10	FC 08 Homburg	38	13	11	14	53	46	+7	37
11	Hertha BSC	38	11	15	12	48	42	+6	37
12	Hannover 96	38	12	13	13	49	46	+3	37
13	Mainz 05	38	13	11	14	46	51	-5	37
14	1. FC Saarbrücken	38	14	9	15	58	69	-11	37
15	SC Fortuna Köln	38	13	10	15	53	49	+4	36
16	Stuttgarter Kickers	38	11	13	14	42	50	-8	35
17	Carl Zeiss Jena	38	9	16	13	38	41	-3	34
18	Wuppertaler SV	38	10	11	17	44	52	-8	31
19	Rot-Weiss Essen	38	9	11	18	44	60	-16	29
20	Tennis Borussia Berlin	38	7	12	19	42	60	-18	26

‹ Hannover 96 FC 08 Homburg ›