TSV 1860 München vs Werder Bremen

Match ☆ 09 Mar 1996

GER · Bundesliga · 1995

GER TSV 1860 München

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Current league place

#5 / 18 · GER · Bundesliga · 2026/27

As of this morning · domestic league only

HT 1–0

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	TSV 1860 München	Werder Bremen	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	7	2	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	9	8	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	2.03	0.61	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	32.0%	30.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	27.0%	31.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	26.0%	26.0%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	9		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	2.64		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 9 Mar 1996, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

TSV 1860 München 1,600 after: 1,599

Werder Bremen 1,638 after: 1,639

Rating gap +27 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 26.3% 25–49 · 73,141 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.29 home – away

Home win 41.8%

Draw 26.3% every level score added up

Away win 31.9%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 26.3% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 26.3% form only

This Elo gap said 26.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 27.5% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 27.5% – 27.7% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 26.3% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Bundesliga · 19951996 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund Champion	34	19	11	4	76	38	+38	68
2	FC Bayern München	34	19	5	10	66	46	+20	62
3	Schalke 04	34	14	14	6	45	36	+9	56
4	M'gladbach	34	15	8	11	52	51	+1	53
5	Hamburger SV	34	12	14	8	52	47	+5	50
6	Hansa Rostock	34	13	10	11	47	43	+4	49
7	Karlsruher SC	34	12	12	10	53	47	+6	48
8	TSV 1860 München	34	11	12	11	52	46	+6	45
9	Werder Bremen	34	10	14	10	39	42	-3	44
10	VfB Stuttgart	34	10	13	11	59	62	-3	43
11	SC Freiburg	34	11	9	14	30	41	-11	42
12	1. FC Köln	34	9	13	12	33	35	-2	40
13	Fortuna Düsseldorf	34	8	16	10	40	47	-7	40
14	Bayer Leverkusen	34	8	14	12	37	38	-1	38
15	FC St. Pauli	34	9	11	14	43	51	-8	38
16	1. FC Kaiserslautern	34	6	18	10	31	37	-6	36
17	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	7	11	16	43	68	-25	32
18	KFC Uerdingen 05	34	5	11	18	33	56	-23	26

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