Volendam vs Groningen

Match ☆ 27 Mar 1996

NED · Eredivisie · 1995

NED Volendam

Current form · last 20

L D L W W L W L L L D D L W L D L W L L

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	Volendam	Groningen	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	1	1	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	9	10	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.26	0.34	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	28.0%	38.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	24.7%	32.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	24.7%	29.4%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	2		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.60		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 27 Mar 1996, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

Volendam 1,409 after: 1,421

Groningen 1,524 after: 1,512

Rating gap -49 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 26.3% 25–49 · 73,141 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.23 home – away

Home win 31.4%

Draw 29.6% every level score added up

Away win 39.0%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 28.7% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 29.6% form only

This Elo gap said 26.3% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 28.1% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 28.1% – 28.2% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 28.7% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Eredivisie · 19951996 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Ajax Champion	34	26	5	3	97	24	+73	83
2	PSV Eindhoven	34	24	5	5	97	25	+72	77
3	Feyenoord	34	18	9	7	66	36	+30	63
4	Roda JC Kerkrade	34	15	12	7	51	35	+16	57
5	Vitesse Arnhem	34	15	8	11	48	44	+4	53
6	Sparta Rotterdam	34	14	11	9	53	53	0	53
7	SC Heerenveen	34	14	11	9	66	68	-2	53
8	NAC Breda	34	14	10	10	58	44	+14	52
9	Groningen	34	12	13	9	48	45	+3	49
10	Twente	34	14	6	14	46	55	-9	48
11	RKC Waalwijk	34	11	11	12	44	44	0	44
12	Willem II Tilburg	34	9	12	13	53	59	-6	39
13	Fortuna Sittard	34	6	13	15	27	54	-27	31
14	De Graafschap	34	6	11	17	37	66	-29	29
15	Utrecht	34	6	10	18	27	59	-32	28
16	Volendam	34	6	9	19	29	65	-36	27
17	NEC Nijmegen	34	6	7	21	33	73	-40	25
18	Go Ahead Eagles	34	5	7	22	40	71	-31	22

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