FK Bodø/Glimt vs Sarpsborg 08

Match ☆ 13 Dec 2026 · 16:00 UTC

NOR · Eliteserien · 2026

NOR FK Bodø/Glimt

Current form · last 20

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Latest results · oldest first

Current league place

#9 / 16 · NOR · Eliteserien · 2026

As of this morning · domestic league only

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The models forecast for this fixture

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	FK Bodø/Glimt	Sarpsborg 08	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	1	8	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	21	22	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.13	1.68	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	12.0%	18.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	14.0%	23.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	20.4%	23.8%	share of every match drawn
Draw scorethe predictor ranking score	0.076	0.338	the predictor ranking score
Rankposition in that ranking	1,754	345	position in that ranking
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	9		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	1.81		both sides' draw debt added
Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by	0.414		what the Cross predictor orders by

Team strength · Elo

FK Bodø/Glimt 2,113

Sarpsborg 08 1,831

Rating gap +348 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 13.9% 300+ · 22,634 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 2.72 – 1.02 home – away

Home win 72.8%

Draw 15.9% every level score added up

Away win 11.3%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 15.3% 70% goals model · 30% Elo gap

Goals model said 15.9% form only

This Elo gap said 13.9% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 10.4% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 10.4% – 11.2% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 15.3% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.

A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · Eliteserien · 2026 Current indexed standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Viking FK	26	20	2	4	69	27	+42	62
2	FK Bodø/Glimt	26	20	2	4	63	23	+40	62
3	Rosenborg BK	26	14	4	8	53	32	+21	46
4	Lillestrøm SK	26	14	3	9	39	35	+4	45
5	Molde FK	26	13	5	8	64	44	+20	44
6	Tromsø IL	26	11	7	8	43	40	+3	40
7	SK Brann	26	10	3	13	47	44	+3	33
8	Vålerenga Fotball	26	9	5	12	43	47	-4	32
9	Sarpsborg 08	26	8	7	11	32	42	-10	31
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	33	46	-13	31
11	Hamarkameratene	26	8	6	12	38	53	-15	30
12	Fredrikstad FK	26	8	6	12	31	46	-15	30
13	Sandefjord Fotball	26	7	7	12	31	39	-8	28
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	30	51	-21	26
15	Aalesunds FK	26	5	9	12	45	60	-15	24
16	IK Start	26	5	4	17	27	59	-32	19

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