| Figure | Sarpsborg 08 | Lillestrøm SK | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 8 | 7 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 22 | 21 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 1.68 | 1.06 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 18.0% | 14.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 23.0% | 16.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 23.8% | 22.1% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.338 | 0.266 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 345 | 508 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 15 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 2.74 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.604 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking FK | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 27 | +42 | 62 |
| 2 | FK Bodø/Glimt | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 63 | 23 | +40 | 62 |
| 3 | Rosenborg BK | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 32 | +21 | 46 |
| 4 | Lillestrøm SK | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 45 |
| 5 | Molde FK | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 44 | +20 | 44 |
| 6 | Tromsø IL | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | +3 | 40 |
| 7 | SK Brann | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 33 |
| 8 | Vålerenga Fotball | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 | Hamarkameratene | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad FK | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 30 |
| 13 | Sandefjord Fotball | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 26 |
| 15 | Aalesunds FK | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 | IK Start | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 59 | -32 | 19 |