What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 07 Feb 2009 → 30 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 22 | 07 Aug 2004 → 19 Feb 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 17 May 2003 → 14 Dec 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 22 Apr 2023 → 31 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 31 Jan 2004 → 08 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 03 Aug 2013 → 09 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 24 Apr 2011 → 15 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 02 Mar 2024 → 27 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 19 Feb 2021 → 08 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 20 Oct 2014 → 06 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 986 | 252 | 25.6% | 2 | 23 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 150 | 57 | 38.0% | 1 | 11 |
| DFB-Pokal | 69 | 8 | 11.6% | 1 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 7 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 3 | 8 |
| UEFA Champions League | 22 | 3 | 13.6% | 4 | 10 |
| DFL-Supercup | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 4 |
| 2025 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2024 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 12 |
| 2023 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 17 |
| 2022 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2021 | 49 | 9 | 18.4% | 12 |
| 2020 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 2019 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 6 |
| 2018 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2017 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 7 |
| 2016 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2015 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 11 |
| 2014 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 12 |
| 2013 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 14 |
| 2012 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 9 |
| 2011 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 14 |
| 2010 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 11 |
| 2009 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 28 |
| 2008 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2007 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 5 |
| 2005 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 2004 | 34 | 2 | 5.9% | 17 |
| 2003 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 18 |
| 2002 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 11 |
| 2001 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 2000 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 9 |
| 1999 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 7 |
| 1998 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 7 |
| 1997 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 11 |
| 1996 | 32 | 17 | 53.1% | 3 |
| 1995 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 1994 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 11 |
| 1993 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 3 |
Over 493 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), VfL Wolfsburg drew 123 where the draw model expected 117.6 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 121.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.