What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 19 Jul 2015 → 02 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 01 Mar 2025 → 21 Jun 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 14 Aug 2019 → 01 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 10 Mar 2012 → 07 Jul 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 25 Sep 2016 → 30 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 14 Sep 2022 → 01 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 28 May 2017 → 13 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 21 Aug 2024 → 01 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 07 Apr 2024 → 26 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 18 Oct 2020 → 27 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 466 | 107 | 23.0% | 0 | 20 |
| Emperor's Cup | 63 | 11 | 17.5% | 2 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2025 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 18 |
| 2024 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2023 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 6 |
| 2022 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 9 |
| 2021 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 6 |
| 2020 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 9 |
| 2019 | 42 | 6 | 14.3% | 16 |
| 2018 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 2017 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 12 |
| 2016 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 10 |
| 2015 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 19 |
| 2014 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 6 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 17 |
| 2011 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2003 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 448 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Vissel Kobe drew 98 where the draw model expected 112.9 from those particular fixtures — about 15 fewer, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 109.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.