What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 27 Dec 2015 → 27 Feb 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 6 | 05 Mar 2016 → 09 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 6 | 25 Mar 2014 → 26 Apr 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 15 Dec 2013 → 01 Feb 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 28 Nov 2015 → 19 Dec 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 16 May 2015 → 12 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 14 Mar 2015 → 02 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 31 Jan 2015 → 21 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 23 Dec 2012 → 26 Jan 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 11 Oct 2015 → 24 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 168 | 68 | 40.5% | 0 | 8 |
| Coppa Italia | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 7 |
| 2015 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 5 |
| 2014 | 44 | 21 | 47.7% | 6 |
| 2013 | 42 | 17 | 40.5% | 4 |
| 2012 | 23 | 10 | 43.5% | 3 |
| 2011 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 178 matches (Aug 2010 – Aug 2026), Virtus Lanciano drew 68 where the draw model expected 55.7 from those particular fixtures — about 12 more, or 2.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 56.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.