What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 13 Nov 2022 → 29 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 12 Mar 2023 → 17 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 29 Jul 2018 → 17 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 20 Jan 2019 → 24 Feb 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 09 Oct 2021 → 21 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 02 May 2021 → 29 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 07 Apr 2019 → 11 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 12 Nov 2017 → 23 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 11 Sep 2022 → 08 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 13 Mar 2021 → 11 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 242 | 66 | 27.3% | 0 | 12 |
| Coppa Italia | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 5 |
| 2023 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2022 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2021 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 7 |
| 2020 | 29 | 10 | 34.5% | 5 |
| 2019 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 11 |
| 2017 | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 7 |
Over 248 matches (Jul 2017 – Apr 2024), Virtus Francavilla drew 66 where the draw model expected 75.9 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 74.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.