What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 12 Feb 2022 → 20 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 07 Apr 2019 → 01 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 22 Sep 2018 → 20 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 4 | 31 Jan 2021 → 14 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 4 | 16 Feb 2020 → 01 Mar 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 4 | 23 Dec 2018 → 20 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 3 | 10 Apr 2022 → 24 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 3 | 28 Nov 2021 → 12 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 3 | 21 Mar 2021 → 03 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 15 Nov 2020 → 22 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 130 | 49 | 37.7% | 3 | 8 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2021 | 39 | 19 | 48.7% | 4 |
| 2020 | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 4 |
| 2019 | 28 | 10 | 35.7% | 7 |
| 2018 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 7 |
Over 130 matches (Sep 2018 – Apr 2022), Vibonese drew 49 where the draw model expected 41.0 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 39.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.