What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 02 Mar 2019 → 13 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 25 Sep 2016 → 16 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 08 May 2016 → 23 Jul 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 01 Aug 2018 → 29 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 19 Jul 2015 → 12 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 02 May 2018 → 22 Jul 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 13 Aug 2017 → 14 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 05 Oct 2019 → 07 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 27 Feb 2016 → 16 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 25 Aug 2012 → 06 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 344 | 89 | 25.9% | 1 | 18 |
| Emperor's Cup | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 1 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2020 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 2019 | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 19 |
| 2018 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 11 |
| 2017 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 4 | 11.4% | 12 |
| 2015 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2014 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 6 |
| 2013 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2012 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 7 |
| 2011 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2009 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 264 matches (Mar 2015 – Jun 2025), Vegalta Sendai drew 58 where the draw model expected 66.8 from those particular fixtures — about 9 fewer, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 64.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.