What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 24 Sep 2025 → 14 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 31 May 2015 → 29 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 14 May 2023 → 06 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 16 Mar 2017 → 25 Jun 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 16 Aug 2026 → 07 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 04 Dec 2024 → 15 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 29 Sep 2012 → 04 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 20 Feb 2019 → 01 May 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 24 Oct 2024 → 24 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 03 Jul 2024 → 28 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 412 | 111 | 26.9% | 3 | 16 |
| Copa do Brasil | 87 | 31 | 35.6% | 4 | 5 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2025 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 17 |
| 2024 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 6 |
| 2023 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 12 |
| 2022 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2020 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 5 |
| 2019 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 7 |
| 2018 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 5 |
| 2017 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2015 | 48 | 15 | 31.3% | 15 |
| 2014 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2013 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 5 |
| 2012 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2000 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 412 matches (Apr 2015 – Nov 2026), Vasco da Gama drew 118 where the draw model expected 115.6 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 110.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.