What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 02 Apr 2023 → 08 Jul 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 24 Nov 2024 → 03 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 18 Aug 2025 → 05 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 02 Sep 2023 → 29 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 15 May 2024 → 14 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 08 Apr 2024 → 05 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 22 Jul 2023 → 22 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 05 Jul 2025 → 27 Jul 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 12 Nov 2023 → 02 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 05 Sep 2022 → 03 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allsvenskan | 122 | 31 | 25.4% | 3 | 14 |
| Swedish Cup | 64 | 13 | 20.3% | 2 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2025 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 10 |
| 2024 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2023 | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | 14 |
| 2022 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 4 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2017 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2014 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 157 matches (Aug 2015 – Mar 2026), IFK Värnamo drew 38 where the draw model expected 36.7 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 36.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.