What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 19 Oct 2025 → 15 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 02 Sep 2023 → 02 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 07 Apr 2024 → 25 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 11 Mar 2001 → 20 May 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 20 Jul 2025 → 21 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 28 Mar 2025 → 10 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 22 Oct 2000 → 03 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 22 Apr 2000 → 04 Sep 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 28 Feb 2000 → 08 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 04 Dec 1999 → 08 Feb 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 102 | 32 | 31.4% | 0 | 10 |
| 3. Liga | 76 | 14 | 18.4% | 1 | 16 |
| Regionalliga Südwest | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 1 | 5 |
| Bundesliga | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 4 | 7 |
| DFB-Pokal | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 9 |
| 2024 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 11 |
| 2023 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 13 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 2016 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2001 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 10 |
| 2000 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 7 |
| 1999 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 4 |
| 1998 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 5 |
Over 157 matches (Aug 2016 – Aug 2026), SSV Ulm 1846 drew 39 where the draw model expected 42.6 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 43.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.