What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 11 May 2021 → 03 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 27 Dec 2020 → 13 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 28 Oct 2018 → 13 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 30 Oct 2015 → 10 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 29 Nov 2025 → 25 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 14 Jan 2018 → 04 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 22 Oct 2017 → 23 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 01 Apr 2017 → 21 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 22 Jan 2022 → 03 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 05 Oct 2019 → 16 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 272 | 62 | 22.8% | 3 | 19 |
| Taça de Portugal | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 0 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2025 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 4 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 7 |
| 2021 | 41 | 3 | 7.3% | 21 |
| 2020 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2018 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 5 |
| 2015 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 6 |
Over 291 matches (Aug 2015 – Oct 2026), CD Tondela drew 68 where the draw model expected 72.2 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 73.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.