What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 23 Mar 1997 → 14 Sep 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 16 May 1999 → 26 Sep 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 13 Feb 2000 → 16 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 29 Mar 1998 → 16 May 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 06 Dec 1998 → 31 Jan 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 31 Jan 1998 → 11 Mar 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 13 Feb 1999 → 21 Mar 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 24 Oct 1999 → 21 Nov 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 22 Sep 1996 → 27 Oct 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 31 Aug 2016 → 30 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segunda División | 164 | 44 | 26.8% | 1 | 14 |
| Copa del Rey | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2014 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2000 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 10 |
| 1999 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 12 |
| 1998 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 9 |
| 1997 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 14 |
| 1996 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 5 |
Over 173 matches (Sep 1996 – Oct 2025), CD Toledo drew 45 where the draw model expected 52.5 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 51.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.