What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 17 Dec 2016 → 08 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 18 Sep 2015 → 19 Dec 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 11 Jan 2025 → 17 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 10 Apr 2023 → 30 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 13 Mar 2021 → 18 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 17 Oct 2020 → 13 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 29 Nov 2014 → 08 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 16 Jan 2016 → 05 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 03 May 2014 → 30 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 22 Sep 2021 → 06 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 686 | 231 | 33.7% | 4 | 17 |
| Serie C | 170 | 50 | 29.4% | 2 | 11 |
| Coppa Italia | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2025 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 11 |
| 2024 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 6 |
| 2023 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 11 |
| 2022 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 7 |
| 2021 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 11 |
| 2020 | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | 11 |
| 2019 | 31 | 12 | 38.7% | 5 |
| 2018 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 6 |
| 2017 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 14 |
| 2016 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 9 |
| 2015 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 17 |
| 2014 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 9 |
| 2013 | 42 | 17 | 40.5% | 3 |
| 2012 | 24 | 8 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 22 | 9 | 40.9% | 4 |
| 2005 | 45 | 18 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 2003 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2002 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 2001 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 6 |
| 2000 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | 6 |
| 1999 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | 8 |
| 1998 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 4 |
Over 446 matches (Jan 2015 – Apr 2026), Ternana Calcio drew 121 where the draw model expected 135.1 from those particular fixtures — about 14 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 138.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.