What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 09 Nov 2005 → 21 Nov 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 11 Jun 2019 → 14 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 06 Sep 2012 → 15 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 29 Mar 2011 → 15 Nov 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 30 Dec 2009 → 26 Jun 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 11 Oct 2024 → 05 Jun 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 13 Oct 2015 → 07 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 10 Jun 2004 → 25 Jan 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 17 Nov 2003 → 18 Feb 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 07 Nov 2020 → 25 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 71 | 16 | 22.5% | 3 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 2 | 7 |
| AFC Asian Cup qualification | 27 | 5 | 18.5% | 3 | 4 |
| AFC Challenge Cup | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 3 | 6 |
| AFC Challenge Cup qualification | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 | 3 |
| Asian Games | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 0 | 4 |
| AFC Asian Cup | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 | 2 |
| King's Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| ELF Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| CAFA Nations Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 | 1 |
| Merdeka Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Navruz Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2024 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2023 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2021 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2020 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 2018 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2017 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2016 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2015 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2011 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2010 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2007 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2006 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2003 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2000 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1997 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1996 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
Over 207 matches (Jun 1992 – Oct 2026), Tajikistan drew 43 where the draw model expected 43.6 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 44.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 7 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.