What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 29 Nov 2025 → 21 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 17 Dec 2011 → 20 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 09 Apr 2011 → 30 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 27 Feb 2021 → 07 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 25 Sep 1996 → 14 Dec 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 19 Aug 2017 → 05 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 19 Feb 2000 → 29 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 02 Aug 2025 → 18 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 18 Nov 2017 → 30 Jan 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 14 Sep 2013 → 23 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 782 | 215 | 27.5% | 16 | 16 |
| League Two | 464 | 112 | 24.1% | 1 | 17 |
| FA Cup | 310 | 56 | 18.1% | 2 | 5 |
| Championship | 230 | 54 | 23.5% | 0 | 15 |
| League Cup | 190 | 42 | 22.1% | 1 | 5 |
| Premier League | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 12 |
| 2025 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 13 |
| 2024 | 47 | 17 | 36.2% | 9 |
| 2023 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 7 |
| 2022 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 11 |
| 2021 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 17 |
| 2020 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 11 |
| 2019 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2018 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 10 |
| 2017 | 49 | 7 | 14.3% | 15 |
| 2016 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2015 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 12 |
| 2013 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 13 |
| 2012 | 53 | 8 | 15.1% | 16 |
| 2011 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 19 |
| 2010 | 49 | 17 | 34.7% | 7 |
| 2009 | 49 | 18 | 36.7% | 10 |
| 2008 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2007 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 9 |
| 2006 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 13 |
| 2005 | 50 | 17 | 34.0% | 10 |
| 2004 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 9 |
| 2003 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2002 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 5 |
| 2001 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2000 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 14 |
| 1999 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 6 |
| 1998 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 1997 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 9 |
| 1996 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 17 |
| 1995 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 1994 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 8 |
| 1993 | 27 | 9 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1992 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1989 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 2 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1985 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1983 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1980 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1978 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 1976 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1975 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1969 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1967 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1965 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1962 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1923 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1913 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1911 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1910 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1886 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 571 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Swindon Town drew 135 where the draw model expected 154.1 from those particular fixtures — about 19 fewer, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 154.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.