What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32 | 27 Nov 2016 → 09 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 17 Mar 2019 → 14 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 22 | 10 Feb 2023 → 05 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 25 Jul 2025 → 20 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 12 Sep 2021 → 31 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 08 Mar 2020 → 28 Aug 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 13 Sep 2015 → 22 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 05 May 1998 → 04 Nov 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 04 Oct 2020 → 19 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 20 Apr 2011 → 04 Nov 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 484 | 111 | 22.9% | 0 | 29 |
| Austrian Cup | 234 | 42 | 18.0% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 95 | 24 | 25.3% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 8 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Conference League | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 15 | 41.7% | 6 |
| 2025 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 15 |
| 2024 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2023 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 22 |
| 2022 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 5 |
| 2021 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 12 |
| 2020 | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | 12 |
| 2019 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 23 |
| 2018 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 8 |
| 2017 | 43 | 3 | 7.0% | 27 |
| 2016 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 9 |
| 2015 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2014 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 2013 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 8 |
| 2012 | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2011 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2010 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2009 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2008 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2004 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2002 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 8 |
| 2001 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2000 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 1999 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 4 |
| 1998 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 11 |
| 1997 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1996 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1995 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1994 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1987 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1982 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1980 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1975 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1971 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1970 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1969 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1964 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 504 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), SK Sturm Graz drew 112 where the draw model expected 117.5 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 120.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.