What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 27 Aug 2005 → 31 Dec 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 07 Mar 1998 → 03 Oct 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 06 Jan 2024 → 29 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 18 Oct 2025 → 20 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 27 Sep 2019 → 10 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 30 Oct 1993 → 01 Jan 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 04 Nov 2011 → 21 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 23 Feb 2002 → 13 Apr 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 29 Jan 1999 → 03 Apr 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 27 Aug 1994 → 09 Oct 1994 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 888 | 244 | 27.5% | 2 | 26 |
| Premier League | 380 | 109 | 28.7% | 2 | 11 |
| FA Cup | 341 | 94 | 27.6% | 2 | 5 |
| League Cup | 206 | 53 | 25.7% | 0 | 6 |
| League One | 184 | 44 | 23.9% | 0 | 11 |
| Club Friendlies | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 0 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 5 |
| 2025 | 56 | 16 | 28.6% | 13 |
| 2024 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 14 |
| 2023 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2022 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2021 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 2020 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2019 | 52 | 17 | 32.7% | 13 |
| 2018 | 46 | 19 | 41.3% | 4 |
| 2017 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2016 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 8 |
| 2015 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2014 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 6 |
| 2013 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 5 |
| 2012 | 44 | 18 | 40.9% | 10 |
| 2011 | 59 | 14 | 23.7% | 11 |
| 2010 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 7 |
| 2009 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 8 |
| 2008 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 10 |
| 2007 | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 7 |
| 2006 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 10 |
| 2005 | 49 | 4 | 8.2% | 23 |
| 2004 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2003 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 9 |
| 2002 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 11 |
| 2001 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 6 |
| 2000 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 7 |
| 1999 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 11 |
| 1998 | 50 | 7 | 14.0% | 23 |
| 1997 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 1996 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 7 |
| 1995 | 51 | 18 | 35.3% | 5 |
| 1994 | 55 | 20 | 36.4% | 11 |
| 1993 | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | 11 |
| 1992 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1990 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1986 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1983 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1982 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1979 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1977 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1975 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 3 |
| 1971 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 1970 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 1 |
| 1964 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 2 |
| 1963 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1960 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 2 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1939 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1926 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1922 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1907 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1906 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1905 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1904 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1903 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1902 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1901 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1900 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1898 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1897 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1896 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1895 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1894 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1891 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1890 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1888 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1886 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1885 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1883 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 593 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Stoke City drew 159 where the draw model expected 162.1 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 156.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.