What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 03 Feb 2024 → 09 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 22 Feb 2010 → 12 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 29 Jan 2023 → 06 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 29 Oct 2024 → 26 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 30 Jul 2011 → 28 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 15 Mar 2021 → 25 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 10 Dec 2018 → 16 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 22 Aug 2008 → 10 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 16 Mar 2008 → 18 May 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 04 Aug 2007 → 21 Oct 2007 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 796 | 223 | 28.0% | 1 | 17 |
| Bundesliga | 204 | 48 | 23.5% | 4 | 11 |
| DFB-Pokal | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | 6 |
| 2025 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 6 |
| 2024 | 37 | 4 | 10.8% | 17 |
| 2023 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 14 |
| 2022 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 5 |
| 2021 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2020 | 29 | 11 | 37.9% | 4 |
| 2019 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 2018 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2017 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2015 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 9 |
| 2014 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2011 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 12 |
| 2010 | 35 | 3 | 8.6% | 16 |
| 2009 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 7 |
| 2008 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 11 |
| 2007 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 11 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 4 |
| 2002 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 11 |
| 2001 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 8 |
| 2000 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | 7 |
| 1999 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 1998 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 10 |
| 1997 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 7 |
| 1996 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 1995 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 1994 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 1993 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 2 |
Over 436 matches (Feb 2015 – Nov 2026), FC St. Pauli drew 121 where the draw model expected 115.6 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 116.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.