What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 19 Oct 2025 → 07 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 26 Dec 2020 → 10 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 11 Dec 2016 → 14 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 20 Sep 2015 → 15 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 23 Sep 2012 → 04 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 25 Oct 2021 → 27 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 16 Sep 2018 → 05 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 24 Jun 2017 → 30 Jul 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 13 Sep 2021 → 14 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 20 Sep 2020 → 18 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 342 | 89 | 26.0% | 11 | 11 |
| Copa do Brasil | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 1 | 7 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2025 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 11 |
| 2024 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 8 |
| 2020 | 28 | 5 | 17.9% | 7 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2018 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 8 |
| 2016 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 9 |
| 2014 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 7 |
| 2013 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 9 |
Over 300 matches (Apr 2015 – Mar 2026), Sport Recife drew 75 where the draw model expected 83.2 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 80.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.