What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 18 Apr 2026 → 12 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 01 Mar 2025 → 12 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 26 Sep 2020 → 20 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 20 Dec 2025 → 21 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 29 Oct 2023 → 16 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 30 Jan 2021 → 14 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 06 Aug 2011 → 17 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 28 Feb 2009 → 13 Apr 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 03 Mar 2026 → 08 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 01 Sep 2024 → 05 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 202 | 61 | 30.2% | 3 | 10 |
| Regionalliga West | 70 | 17 | 24.3% | 0 | 7 |
| DFB-Pokal | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 12 |
| 2025 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 8 |
| 2024 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2022 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 6 |
| 2021 | 43 | 17 | 39.5% | 7 |
| 2020 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 8 |
| 2019 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 4 |
| 2011 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2008 | 18 | 8 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 211 matches (Jul 2015 – Oct 2026), SC Verl drew 62 where the draw model expected 54.9 from those particular fixtures — about 7 more, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 57.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.