What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 24 Apr 2022 → 18 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 05 Oct 2025 → 22 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 04 Jun 2023 → 17 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 25 Jul 2021 → 06 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 21 Apr 2024 → 12 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 26 May 2013 → 29 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 22 Jul 2012 → 21 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 08 Jul 2018 → 16 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 24 Oct 2010 → 11 May 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 19 Apr 2008 → 05 Jun 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliteserien | 447 | 123 | 27.5% | 5 | 20 |
| 1. divisjon | 118 | 24 | 20.3% | 3 | 13 |
| Norwegian Football Cup | 76 | 8 | 10.5% | 3 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 0 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 | 8 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 10 |
| 2025 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2024 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 14 |
| 2023 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 17 |
| 2022 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 22 |
| 2021 | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 16 |
| 2020 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 7 |
| 2019 | 33 | 15 | 45.5% | 8 |
| 2018 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 11 |
| 2017 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 7 |
| 2016 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2015 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2014 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 2013 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 14 |
| 2012 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 13 |
| 2011 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 8 |
| 2010 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 5 |
| 2009 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 7 |
| 2008 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 9 |
Over 430 matches (Apr 2015 – Nov 2026), Sarpsborg 08 drew 108 where the draw model expected 95.5 from those particular fixtures — about 12 more, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 97.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.