What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 18 Jul 2012 → 02 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 24 Aug 2025 → 02 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 03 Sep 2013 → 09 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 17 May 2023 → 05 Jul 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 23 Aug 2026 → 17 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 09 Jun 2018 → 19 Aug 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 21 Oct 2015 → 06 Dec 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 19 Jun 2024 → 17 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 28 Nov 2020 → 26 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 13 Oct 2019 → 10 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 565 | 157 | 27.8% | 1 | 12 |
| Copa do Brasil | 72 | 14 | 19.4% | 2 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Supercopa do Brasil | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2025 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 11 |
| 2024 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2023 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 10 |
| 2022 | 48 | 18 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2021 | 55 | 20 | 36.4% | 6 |
| 2020 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2019 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2018 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 9 |
| 2017 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2016 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2015 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 9 |
| 2014 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 5 |
| 2013 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 11 |
| 2012 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 12 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1992 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 520 matches (May 2015 – Oct 2026), São Paulo drew 148 where the draw model expected 148.0 from those particular fixtures — about 0 fewer, or 0.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 139.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.