What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 03 May 2024 → 07 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 29 Dec 2013 → 10 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 06 Apr 2019 → 30 Jun 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 01 Sep 2012 → 01 Dec 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 10 Mar 2018 → 06 May 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 13 Sep 2014 → 22 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 13 Jul 2014 → 23 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 10 Jul 2013 → 28 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 29 May 2022 → 13 Jul 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 09 Aug 2021 → 11 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 450 | 123 | 27.3% | 5 | 15 |
| Emperor's Cup | 56 | 8 | 14.3% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 41 | 5 | 12.2% | 17 |
| 2023 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2022 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 8 |
| 2021 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 7 |
| 2020 | 34 | 15 | 44.1% | 5 |
| 2019 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 12 |
| 2018 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 11 |
| 2017 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2016 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 5 |
| 2015 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 6 |
| 2014 | 37 | 4 | 10.8% | 13 |
| 2013 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2012 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 12 |
| 2011 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 379 matches (Mar 2015 – Aug 2026), Sagan Tosu drew 109 where the draw model expected 101.1 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 92.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.