What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 07 Jun 2015 → 27 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 31 May 2008 → 09 Jan 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 25 Mar 2007 → 13 Dec 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 18 Jun 2005 → 10 Dec 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 23 Apr 2000 → 22 Nov 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 13 Oct 2002 → 15 Mar 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 05 Jun 2025 → 14 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 07 Oct 2021 → 06 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 15 Nov 2011 → 08 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 31 May 2009 → 11 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CECAFA Cup | 83 | 18 | 21.7% | 1 | 6 |
| Friendly | 76 | 27 | 35.5% | 0 | 5 |
| African Cup of Nations qualification | 61 | 16 | 26.2% | 4 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 4 | 4 |
| African Cup of Nations | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Afro-Asian Games | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2024 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2023 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 1 |
| 2022 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2021 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2019 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 2018 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2016 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2015 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2013 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 2011 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2010 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2009 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2008 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2007 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2006 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2004 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2003 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2002 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2001 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2000 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 1999 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 1 |
| 1998 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1996 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1976 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 283 matches (Jul 1976 – Oct 2026), Rwanda drew 75 where the draw model expected 71.7 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 67.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 2 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.