What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 14 Feb 2026 → 23 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 22 | 24 Sep 2023 → 17 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 04 Nov 2011 → 13 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 22 Mar 2025 → 11 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 25 Oct 2006 → 01 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 11 Oct 1996 → 08 Dec 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 03 Aug 1996 → 29 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 23 Aug 2022 → 04 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 31 Mar 2009 → 08 May 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 28 Feb 1997 → 06 Apr 1997 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 140 | 42 | 30.0% | 1 | 8 |
| 3. Liga | 126 | 29 | 23.0% | 4 | 20 |
| Regionalliga West | 70 | 17 | 24.3% | 0 | 11 |
| DFB-Pokal | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Niederrheinpokal | 19 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 18 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 3 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 22 |
| 2025 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2024 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 7 |
| 2023 | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 15 |
| 2022 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2012 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 5 |
| 2011 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2009 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 7 |
| 2008 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 19 | 8 | 42.1% | 4 |
| 2006 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 8 |
| 2005 | 17 | 8 | 47.1% | 3 |
| 2004 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 3 |
| 1997 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 6 |
| 1996 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 8 |
| 1994 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 6 |
| 1993 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 1955 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 163 matches (Aug 2015 – Nov 2026), Rot-Weiss Essen drew 34 where the draw model expected 38.8 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 38.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.