What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 02 Oct 2022 → 23 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 18 Oct 2017 → 11 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 13 May 2026 → 16 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 13 Mar 2024 → 18 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 09 Sep 2018 → 03 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 12 Mar 2026 → 03 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 31 Aug 2025 → 18 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 05 Mar 2022 → 20 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 15 Sep 2021 → 25 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 20 Nov 2016 → 04 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Profesional | 423 | 112 | 26.5% | 3 | 24 |
| Copa De La Liga Profesional | 71 | 18 | 25.4% | 5 | 7 |
| Copa Argentina | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 1 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 1 | 4 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 1 | 2 |
| Supercopa Argentina | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 9 |
| 2025 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 8 |
| 2024 | 49 | 19 | 38.8% | 9 |
| 2023 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 17 |
| 2022 | 49 | 9 | 18.4% | 8 |
| 2021 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 8 |
| 2020 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2019 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 7 |
| 2018 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 9 |
| 2017 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2016 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2015 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2014 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 7 |
| 2012 | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | 5 |
| 2011 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1996 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 468 matches (Feb 2015 – Nov 2026), River Plate drew 115 where the draw model expected 128.2 from those particular fixtures — about 13 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 139.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.