What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 17 Mar 2013 → 14 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 21 Nov 2008 → 28 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 14 Sep 1996 → 05 Jan 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 30 Sep 2011 → 22 Jan 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 29 Jan 2023 → 02 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 18 Dec 2010 → 06 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 21 Nov 1999 → 30 Jan 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 11 Jul 2026 → 06 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 28 Dec 2025 → 22 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 22 Feb 2025 → 13 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 802 | 247 | 30.8% | 4 | 12 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 0 | 7 |
| Taça de Portugal | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 8 |
| 2025 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 8 |
| 2024 | 37 | 19 | 51.3% | 5 |
| 2023 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2022 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2021 | 26 | 9 | 34.6% | 5 |
| 2020 | 31 | 11 | 35.5% | 7 |
| 2019 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 2018 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 8 |
| 2017 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2016 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 7 |
| 2015 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2014 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 7 |
| 2013 | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 12 |
| 2012 | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 8 |
| 2011 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 8 |
| 2010 | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 4 |
| 2009 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 8 |
| 2008 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2006 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2005 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 7 |
| 2004 | 34 | 16 | 47.1% | 5 |
| 2003 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2000 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5 |
| 1999 | 33 | 12 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 1998 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 5 |
| 1997 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 7 |
| 1996 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 11 |
Over 393 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Rio Ave drew 122 where the draw model expected 100.8 from those particular fixtures — about 21 more, or 2.5 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 6 times running. A flat league average would have expected 99.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.