What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 07 Dec 2024 → 03 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 20 Apr 2024 → 19 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 03 Dec 2023 → 17 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 23 Sep 2020 → 25 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 09 Dec 2017 → 03 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 14 Oct 2018 → 25 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 05 Feb 2023 → 15 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 19 Nov 2022 → 23 Dec 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 15 Mar 2021 → 18 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 16 Mar 2022 → 16 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 316 | 88 | 27.9% | 1 | 12 |
| Coppa Italia | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 9 |
| 2024 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 12 |
| 2023 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 7 |
| 2022 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 7 |
| 2021 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 7 |
| 2020 | 27 | 3 | 11.1% | 9 |
| 2019 | 26 | 12 | 46.2% | 5 |
| 2018 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2017 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 6 |
| 2014 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 323 matches (Jul 2017 – Aug 2026), Renate drew 89 where the draw model expected 101.2 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 97.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.