What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 07 Dec 2024 → 08 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 11 Dec 2021 → 12 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 08 Apr 2023 → 21 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 10 Oct 2021 → 14 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 02 Dec 2020 → 23 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 05 May 2019 → 15 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 15 Feb 2026 → 08 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 19 Oct 2025 → 16 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 23 Dec 2023 → 27 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 22 Mar 2026 → 12 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 278 | 102 | 36.7% | 0 | 8 |
| Coppa Italia | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 5 |
| 2024 | 37 | 16 | 43.2% | 4 |
| 2023 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 7 |
| 2022 | 37 | 19 | 51.3% | 5 |
| 2021 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 7 |
| 2020 | 29 | 9 | 31.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 7 |
| 2018 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 283 matches (Aug 2015 – Aug 2026), Potenza drew 102 where the draw model expected 86.4 from those particular fixtures — about 16 more, or 2.0 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 85.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.