Palmeiras
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 525 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Palmeiras drew 130 where the draw model expected 141.5 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 141.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 06 Apr 2025 → 01 Jun 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 16 Sep 2023 → 12 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 03 Oct 2020 → 15 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 15 Jul 2015 → 03 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 12 Mar 2014 → 28 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 07 Sep 2012 → 27 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 17 Jun 2021 → 24 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 04 May 2019 → 10 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 22 Jul 2012 → 30 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 05 Feb 2026 → 05 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 522 | 122 | 23.4% | 0 | 12 |
| Copa do Brasil | 75 | 14 | 18.7% | 0 | 8 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 1 | 1 |
| Supercopa do Brasil | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 9 |
| 2025 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 12 |
| 2024 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 7 |
| 2023 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 12 |
| 2022 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 7 |
| 2021 | 57 | 13 | 22.8% | 10 |
| 2020 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 12 |
| 2019 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 10 |
| 2018 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 4 |
| 2017 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 7 |
| 2016 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 2015 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 12 |
| 2014 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% | 12 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 12 |
| 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 19:00 |
Palmeiras
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.9% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 20:00 |
Vasco da Gama
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.