What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 06 Apr 2025 → 01 Jun 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 15 Sep 2023 → 11 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 03 Oct 2020 → 14 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 15 Jul 2015 → 02 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 12 Mar 2014 → 28 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 06 Sep 2012 → 27 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 16 Jun 2021 → 24 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 04 May 2019 → 10 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 22 Jul 2012 → 29 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 04 Feb 2026 → 05 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 527 | 123 | 23.3% | 0 | 12 |
| Copa do Brasil | 76 | 14 | 18.4% | 1 | 8 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 1 | 1 |
| Supercopa do Brasil | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 9 |
| 2025 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 12 |
| 2024 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 7 |
| 2023 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 12 |
| 2022 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 7 |
| 2021 | 57 | 13 | 22.8% | 10 |
| 2020 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 12 |
| 2019 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 10 |
| 2018 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 4 |
| 2017 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 7 |
| 2016 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 2015 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 12 |
| 2014 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% | 12 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 12 |
| 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 531 matches (Mar 2015 – Nov 2026), Palmeiras drew 131 where the draw model expected 142.9 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 142.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.