What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 29 Sep 2021 → 11 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 05 Dec 2020 → 14 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 07 Mar 2021 → 18 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 07 Apr 2019 → 31 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 27 Jan 2019 → 17 Feb 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 21 Oct 2017 → 11 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 02 Apr 2022 → 24 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 12 Feb 2022 → 05 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 16 Dec 2018 → 30 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 23 Dec 2017 → 28 Jan 2018 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 166 | 52 | 31.3% | 4 | 13 |
| Coppa Italia | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 4 |
| 2021 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 13 |
| 2020 | 27 | 12 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2019 | 28 | 10 | 35.7% | 7 |
| 2018 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2017 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2013 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 167 matches (Jul 2017 – Apr 2022), Paganese drew 52 where the draw model expected 50.4 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 50.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.