What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 29 Jul 2017 → 09 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 29 Apr 2016 → 14 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 02 May 2015 → 23 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 04 Mar 2007 → 17 Aug 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 27 Nov 2012 → 15 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 28 Oct 2023 → 21 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 07 Aug 2005 → 21 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 30 Oct 2022 → 17 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 06 May 2022 → 20 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 06 Aug 2021 → 07 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 544 | 148 | 27.2% | 1 | 13 |
| 3. Liga | 114 | 24 | 21.1% | 2 | 18 |
| Bundesliga | 76 | 21 | 27.6% | 0 | 8 |
| DFB-Pokal | 42 | 6 | 14.3% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 2024 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2023 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 9 |
| 2022 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2021 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 9 |
| 2020 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2019 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 9 |
| 2018 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2017 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 20 |
| 2016 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 15 |
| 2015 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 15 |
| 2014 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 4 |
| 2013 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2011 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 4 |
| 2010 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 9 |
| 2009 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2008 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 9 |
| 2007 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 14 |
| 2006 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 9 |
| 2005 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 10 |
Over 449 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), SC Paderborn 07 drew 110 where the draw model expected 113.2 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 119.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.