What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 25 May 2003 → 07 Dec 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 26 Jan 2020 → 10 Jul 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 15 Feb 2021 → 20 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 14 Sep 2015 → 12 Dec 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 14 Jan 2023 → 11 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 12 Feb 2022 → 15 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 14 Apr 2002 → 29 Sep 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 08 Apr 2023 → 27 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 08 May 2022 → 11 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 07 Nov 2021 → 09 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 682 | 189 | 27.7% | 8 | 15 |
| UEFA Europa League | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 1 | 3 |
| Taça de Portugal | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 9 |
| 2021 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 10 |
| 2020 | 31 | 8 | 25.8% | 14 |
| 2019 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2018 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2017 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 6 |
| 2015 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 10 |
| 2014 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 8 |
| 2013 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 29 | 12 | 41.4% | 8 |
| 2011 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% | 7 |
| 2010 | 30 | 12 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 2008 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2007 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 6 |
| 2006 | 32 | 12 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2005 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 7 |
| 2004 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 7 |
| 2003 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 15 |
| 2002 | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 9 |
| 2001 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 7 |
| 2000 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 7 |
Over 264 matches (Jan 2015 – Aug 2026), FC Paços de Ferreira drew 69 where the draw model expected 67.5 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 67.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.