What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 09 Aug 2014 → 26 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 10 Jul 2013 → 05 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 19 Oct 2013 → 23 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 30 Mar 2013 → 25 May 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 29 Dec 2016 → 08 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 21 Apr 2017 → 27 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 01 Oct 2016 → 09 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 28 Jul 2012 → 25 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 17 Jun 2017 → 01 Jul 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 07 Sep 2016 → 22 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 172 | 43 | 25.0% | 1 | 24 |
| Emperor's Cup | 30 | 5 | 16.7% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2018 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2017 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2015 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2014 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 15 |
| 2013 | 37 | 4 | 10.8% | 15 |
| 2012 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 5 |
Over 203 matches (Mar 2012 – Aug 2026), Omiya Ardija drew 49 where the draw model expected 51.7 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 48.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.