What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 17 Mar 2021 → 09 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 27 Jun 2021 → 15 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 13 Sep 2020 → 10 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 23 Feb 2019 → 14 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 28 Aug 2013 → 05 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 18 Jul 2020 → 15 Aug 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 30 Nov 2019 → 08 Jul 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 30 Jun 2019 → 27 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 10 Jul 2013 → 03 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 18 Oct 2019 → 10 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 141 | 38 | 27.0% | 0 | 9 |
| Emperor's Cup | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2025 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2024 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2021 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2020 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2019 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 7 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2015 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2013 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2012 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 136 matches (Aug 2015 – Sep 2026), Oita Trinita drew 38 where the draw model expected 35.1 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 32.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.