What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 30 Oct 2012 → 22 Feb 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 17 Apr 2017 → 23 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 23 Dec 2022 → 12 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 26 Aug 2010 → 30 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 24 Sep 2022 → 19 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 02 Sep 2020 → 21 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 24 Sep 2016 → 20 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 03 Nov 2015 → 19 Dec 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 22 Mar 2026 → 05 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 16 Mar 2013 → 20 Apr 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 252 | 75 | 29.8% | 1 | 16 |
| Serie C | 240 | 93 | 38.8% | 6 | 12 |
| Serie A | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 2 | 5 |
| Coppa Italia | 32 | 4 | 12.5% | 2 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21 | 8 | 38.1% | 8 |
| 2025 | 37 | 17 | 46.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 39 | 17 | 43.6% | 4 |
| 2023 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 11 |
| 2022 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2021 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2020 | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | 10 |
| 2019 | 26 | 8 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2018 | 44 | 20 | 45.5% | 4 |
| 2017 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 14 |
| 2016 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2015 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 9 |
| 2014 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 5 |
| 2013 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 8 |
| 2012 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 11 |
| 2011 | 40 | 16 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2010 | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 12 |
| 2009 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 385 matches (Aug 2015 – Aug 2026), Novara drew 130 where the draw model expected 118.4 from those particular fixtures — about 12 more, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 117.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.