What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 115 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Northern Ireland drew 25 where the draw model expected 26.5 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 26.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 08 Oct 2016 → 09 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 25 Mar 2025 → 26 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 23 Mar 2023 → 20 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 29 May 1999 → 02 Sep 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 18 Nov 2018 → 14 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 18 Nov 1992 → 13 Oct 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 30 May 2014 → 29 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 24 May 2011 → 11 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 11 Oct 2008 → 06 Jun 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 23 Mar 1994 → 16 Nov 1994 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Home Championship | 260 | 47 | 18.1% | 0 | 3 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 146 | 39 | 26.7% | 7 | 10 |
| Friendly | 135 | 37 | 27.4% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 124 | 26 | 21.0% | 10 | 10 |
| UEFA Nations League | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | 1 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA European Championship | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Nations Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2024 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2017 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2016 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 2015 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2014 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2013 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 2011 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2010 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2009 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2008 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2007 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 2006 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2005 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 2 |
| 2003 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2002 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2001 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2000 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1999 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1997 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1996 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1995 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1994 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1993 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1992 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1990 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1988 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1983 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1982 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 1981 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1980 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1979 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1977 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1976 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1975 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1974 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1973 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1972 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1970 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1966 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1965 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1964 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1960 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1956 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1955 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1936 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1932 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1931 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1930 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1928 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1926 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1924 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1922 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1920 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1919 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1914 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1913 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1911 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1910 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1909 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1908 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1907 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1906 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1905 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1904 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1903 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1902 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1901 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1900 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1899 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1898 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1897 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1896 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1895 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1894 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1893 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1892 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1891 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1890 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1889 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1888 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1887 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1886 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1885 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1884 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1883 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1882 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Northern Ireland | vs | Georgia | – / – / – | 29.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.