What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 07 Dec 2024 → 26 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 26 Feb 2022 → 06 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 09 Apr 1994 → 21 Sep 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 01 Feb 2014 → 17 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 01 Aug 1996 → 20 Oct 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 08 May 1995 → 25 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 24 Sep 2025 → 29 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 18 Feb 2023 → 07 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 12 Mar 2012 → 25 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 11 Sep 2002 → 04 Nov 2002 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1195 | 299 | 25.0% | 6 | 20 |
| FA Cup | 389 | 96 | 24.7% | 2 | 6 |
| League Cup | 176 | 29 | 16.5% | 3 | 6 |
| Championship | 92 | 19 | 20.7% | 4 | 18 |
| UEFA Europa League | 72 | 17 | 23.6% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 1 | 12 |
| Club Friendlies | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 0 | 6 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 3 | 5 |
| FA Community Shield | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49 | 8 | 16.3% | 11 |
| 2025 | 56 | 9 | 16.1% | 14 |
| 2024 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 59 | 14 | 23.7% | 13 |
| 2022 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 17 |
| 2021 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 9 |
| 2020 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 6 |
| 2019 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 6 |
| 2018 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 11 |
| 2017 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 11 |
| 2016 | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 10 |
| 2015 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2014 | 43 | 6 | 14.0% | 16 |
| 2013 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 8 |
| 2012 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 13 |
| 2011 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 2010 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 7 |
| 2009 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 10 |
| 2008 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 10 |
| 2006 | 59 | 10 | 17.0% | 11 |
| 2005 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 8 |
| 2004 | 55 | 18 | 32.7% | 10 |
| 2003 | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 7 |
| 2002 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 13 |
| 2001 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 12 |
| 2000 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 11 |
| 1999 | 54 | 17 | 31.5% | 9 |
| 1998 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 12 |
| 1997 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 1996 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 15 |
| 1995 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 15 |
| 1994 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 17 |
| 1993 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% | 13 |
| 1992 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1990 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1989 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1988 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1982 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1980 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1975 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1974 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1969 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1968 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 7 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1961 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1960 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1956 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1955 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1954 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1951 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1925 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1924 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1923 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1910 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1909 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1908 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1907 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1905 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1904 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1901 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1900 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1899 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1898 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1897 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1896 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1895 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1894 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 570 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Newcastle United drew 134 where the draw model expected 139.3 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 142.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.