What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 24 Aug 2009 → 09 Nov 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 17 Apr 2010 → 12 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 04 Nov 2007 → 13 Jan 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 06 Nov 2005 → 07 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 21 Jan 2006 → 04 Mar 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 03 Apr 2011 → 14 May 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 14 Nov 2010 → 16 Jan 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 19 Dec 2009 → 07 Feb 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 04 Jan 2009 → 08 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 09 Mar 2008 → 13 Apr 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 184 | 46 | 25.0% | 6 | 9 |
| Taça de Portugal | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 6 |
| 2010 | 30 | 5 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2009 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 9 |
| 2008 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 7 |
| 2005 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 7 |
Over 185 matches (Aug 2005 – Sep 2026), Naval 1º de Maio drew 46 where the draw model expected 49.9 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 47.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.